Where the model and the bookmakers disagree
Model probabilities compared with bookmaker prices, for members.
About the value finder
The value finder lists selections where the model's probability is higher than the bookmakers' price implies, with the size of the gap and how much evidence sits behind it. It is a research tool: prices move, models are uncertain and no selection is a recommendation to bet.
It is included with the Two Leagues and All Leagues memberships.
How prices and edges are worked out
- Best available is the highest decimal price among the bookmakers archived from Sportmonks. Only prices last updated before kick-off are used, and books with impossible margins are ignored.
- Market average removes each bookmaker's margin and averages the fair probabilities; its price is a reference, not a price you can take.
- Edge is the probability times the price, minus one. The pooled forecast already blends the model with Sportmonks predictions and the bookmaker consensus, so its edges are deliberately modest.
- Freshness: prices refresh every few hours as kick-off approaches; prices older than 24 hours count as stale.